Gear Integrated Prognosis Considering Crack Initiation Time Uncertainty  
Author Fuqiong Zhao


Co-Author(s) Zhigang Tian


Abstract Accurate prediction of remaining useful life of critical component in machinery plays an essential role in equipment health management. Prognostics often start after the moment when a fault is detected using diagnostic technology. Due to the limited accuracy of the diagnostic approach as well as the measurement device, there exist large variations in damage initiation time, where damage prognosis should start to be applied. This paper develops an integrated prognostic method which takes the crack initiation time as one of uncertainty sources. The prognostic capability is enhanced by updating simultaneously both the physical model parameters and the crack initiation time through Bayesian inference. The failure life prediction gets more accurate with updated uncertainties.


Keywords Crack initiation time, Bayesian inference, Integrated prognosis, Uncertainty quantification, Gears
    Article #:  20317
Proceedings of the 20th ISSAT International Conference on Reliability and Quality in Design
August 7-9, 2014 - Seattle, Washington, U.S.A.