An Optimal Replacement Policy for Systems with Multi-State Aging Components  
Author Chun-Ho Wang


Co-Author(s) Chao-Hui Huang


Abstract This study aims for multi-state systems (MSSs) with aging multi-state components (MSCs) to construct a timereplacement policy, and thereby determine the optimal time to replace the entire system. The non-homogeneous continuous time Markov models (NHCTMMs) quantify the transition intensities among the degradation states of each component. The dynamic system state probabilities are therefore assessed using the established NHCTMMs. This study uses Markov reward models and the bound approximation approach to assess rewards of MSSs with MSCs, including such things as total maintenance costs and the benefits of the system staying in acceptable working states. Accordingly, we established a long-run expected benefit (LREB) per unit time, representing overall MSS performance through a lifetime, to determine the optimal time to replace the entire system, at which time the LREB values are maximized. Finally, a simulated case illustrates the practicability of the proposed approach.


Keywords aging components, time-replacement policy, non-homogeneous Markov chains, bound approximation approach
    Article #:  21137
Proceedings of the 21st ISSAT International Conference on Reliability and Quality in Design
August 6-8, 2015 - Philadelphia, Pennsylvia, U.S.A.