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International Society of Science and Applied Technologies |
| Risk Evaluation of Subway Construction Collapse Accidents Based on FTA-Bayesian Network | ||||
| Author | Ziyi Zhao
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| Co-Author(s) | Ying Bai; Kaiye Gao
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| Abstract | Based on the analysis of 56 subway construction collapse accidents, accident causation was screened to construct a fault tree for qualitative analysis to delineate the causal relationships of the accidents. Preliminary identification of significant control factors was obtained through structural importance analysis. Building upon the fault tree, a Bayesian network topology for the accidents was established using GeNIe software. This involved integrating database learning and expert experience to determine network nodes and prior probabilities, facilitating risk prediction, cause analysis, and sensitivity analysis. Key control factors identified include inadequate system construction (X9), inadequate supervision (X12), inadequate safety training (X11), lack of safety awareness (X10), and inadequate monitoring (X1). The model's effectiveness was validated through case studies, and finally, risk management measures were proposed targeting the key control factors.
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| Keywords | Subway collapse, Risk evaluation, FTA, Bayesian network | |||
| Article #: RQD2024-224 | ||||
Proceedings of 29th ISSAT International Conference on Reliability & Quality in Design |